Ministry of Economy of Ukraine: The level of the shadow economy in the first half of 2021 remained unchanged - 31% of GDP
30.11.2021The level of the shadow economy in January-June 2021 remained unchanged compared to the same period in 2020 and is 31% of GDP, with two methods out of four showed an increase in the level of "shadow" (electric and monetary), two - a decrease (method "retail spending - retail turnover "and the method of unprofitable enterprises), said the Ministry of Economy on the site with reference to preliminary calculations.
"According to preliminary calculations of the Ministry of Economy, the level of the shadow economy in January-June 2021 compared to the corresponding period of 2020 has not changed and is 31% of official GDP," - said the agency in a policy note "Shadow Economy. General Trends" for November 2021 .
At the same time, two of the four methods of estimating the level of "shadow" recorded an increase in the level of the shadow economy during this period: electric method - by 2 percentage points, up to 28% of GDP, monetary - by 2 percentage points, up to 33% of GDP.
According to the Ministry of Economy, the increase in the level of "shadow" by the electric method remained at the level of increased demand for energy resources in the context of increasing activity, especially metallurgical and machine-building enterprises.
The growth of the "shadow" monetary method occurred against the background of growth in cash turnover, the rate of expansion of which remained significant: 20.7% year on year in June 2021. However, there was an objective increase in the volume of non-cash payments during the pandemic period, according to the Ministry of Economy.
"Therefore, the hypothesis remains that new models of population behavior form non-traditional non-cash shadowing channels, which are not fully covered by the existing method of calculation," the authors of the analytical note said.
At the same time, the method of "expenditures of the population - retail trade and services" showed a decrease in the "shadow" by 2 percentage points to 23%, and the method of unprofitable enterprises - by 10 percentage points to 22% of GDP, due to objective reasons . First, the gradual revival of business activity against the background of adaptation of enterprises to permanent constraints and, as a result, improving the financial results of their work in the reporting period. The second reason is the probable restriction of traditional channels of shadow activity, which has become one of the atypical manifestations of the corona crisis, the ministry explains.
Speaking about the method of unprofitable enterprises, the Ministry of Economy notes that almost all types of economic activity, except construction, have shown a tendency to reduce the level of the shadow economy.
As for the method of "population expenditure - retail trade", the Ministry's calculations may not have taken into account the trade in "unorganized" Internet sites, which to some extent replaced the unorganized outlets stopped due to quarantine restrictions.
It is noted that the calculation of the level of the shadow economy was carried out using improved guidelines approved by the order of the Ministry of Economy of January 20, 2021 №104.
The main reason for maintaining a high level of the shadow economy is the natural desire of business not to lose assets in the context of the corona crisis with its extraordinary manifestations, not predicted in time, the ministry commented.
Following: interfax.com.ua